Political Analyst Zachariah Baraza critiques the Kenyan sugar industry’s collapse, revealing how political cronyism, opaque management, and unchecked importation have devastated farmers and factories in Western Kenya.
Speaking on Wednesday on Radio Generation interview, he explains that while sugar production remains sufficient, the problem is not supply, but that the profits made by factories never return to maintain the industry.
The mismanagement extends beyond infrastructure to the very heart of the sugar industry.
Baraza reveals that factories are technically viable, with farmers prepaying and buyers guaranteed, but “the profits made by factories never return to maintain the industry.” Instead, “politicians put their cronies to stay in positions to siphon money for campaigns,” causing billions to go unpaid to workers and farmers alike.
He says,“The government promised a new machine for Pan Paper but ended up appointing political cronies as directors instead of experts,”
The once-thriving Pan Paper factory, which employed over 10,000 people, now symbolizes the wider decline of industries that were the backbone of local livelihoods and community development.
Western Kenya has long been the heartland of Kenya’s sugar industry, with numerous factories and thousands of farmers dependent on sugarcane cultivation.
At its peak, the country had about 16–17 sugar mills nationwide, with approximately eight located in the Western sugar belt, including major state and private facilities such as Mumias, Nzoia, West Kenya, Butali, Busia, Sukari, Transmara and Olepito.
These factories collectively have a processing capacity estimated at over 44,000 tonnes of cane per day and historically supported hundreds of thousands of smallholder farmers.
At times of strong performance, Western Kenya sugar factories underpinned local economies by absorbing cane from around 292,000 contracted farmers and forming a key component of rural livelihoods.
However, the sector’s productivity was hit by declines in cane supply due to immature harvesting, poor planning and inadequate extension services, forcing mills across the region to suspend operations temporarily to allow cane to mature and reset supply chains.
The government responded with interventions aimed at revitalising the industry. In 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture leased Nzoia Sugar Factory to West Kenya Sugar Company, with plans to invest around Sh5.6 billion in rehabilitation and farmer support, a bid to modernise operations and offer more timely payments to farmers.
Authorities also acted to reset the sector with policies like the Sugar Development Levy to fund cane development, research, factory modernisation and infrastructure, and directed millers to intensify sugarcane cultivation so supply can meet processing demand and reduce dependence on imports.
Nevertheless, production fluctuated, sugarcane deliveries fell sharply due to shortages, with output dropping to historic lows before modest recovery efforts, while persistent problems such as weak planning, ageing machinery, financing gaps and fragmented smallholder supply continue to undermine the sector’s full revival.
The analyst linked the crisis to a series of unmet government promises. “If you look at the last budget, Kiambu County got more allocation than the entire Western region’s nine constituencies combined,” he notes.
Roads meant to transform the region remain half-done, with the 20-kilometer road in Tongaren constituency far from complete despite significant spending.
The analyst explains that political factionalism following the death of former leader Raila Odinga, (Baba), has worsened the situation.
“Initially, Western Kenya was for Baba, but after his passing, the region has been caught up in factional battles,” he said, reaffirming the instability hindering progress.
Central to this turmoil is Jaswant Rai, a controversial figure accused of controlling sugar imports and factories in the region.
“Since Rai took over, sugar has been available in shops, but it’s imported and packaged locally,” Baraza explains. “Farmers harvest sugarcane but don’t get paid because money is siphoned off.”
The analyst alleges that senior politicians secretly own factories and use them as fronts to continue importing sugar, undermining local production.
This has led to growing frustration and protests from workers and farmers demanding billions owed to them.
He also criticized the Kenyan Sugar Board, describing it as being driven by someone else, hinting at political interference that undermines the board’s regulatory role.
This politicization harms the communities that sugar production was originally meant to support.
The impact on Western Kenya’s communities is stark. Baraza recalls the industry’s golden era, when sugar factories pumped millions into the local economy, funding schools, health centers, and providing stable livelihoods.
“Back then, there was no bursary, no scholarship, but none of our kids missed school because of factory income,” he says.
Today, many farmers have abandoned sugarcane cultivation due to unpaid dues and lack of support.
He warns that without urgent, decisive action to separate politics from sugar management and protect local farmers, Western Kenya’s sugar industry will continue to deteriorate, dimming hopes for regional economic revival.
“Promises were made to uplift ordinary people, including Mama Mboga vendors and sugarcane farmers,” Baraza reflects. “They made people believe they would be part of the government and decision-making, but nothing has been delivered.”
The crisis in Western Kenya’s sugar sector exemplifies how political interference and broken commitments can devastate vital industries and communities, leaving a once-prosperous region grappling with economic uncertainty and lost potential.
